Things have been all over the place for the Calgary Flames this season. After a horrific start, it seemed like the sky was falling. Now, the Flames have rebounded a bit and sit at a 7–9–3 record, for 17 points in 19 games (which translates to a 0.447 points percentage). The direction of the Flames remains in question, as they aren’t in the bottom three of the league, but aren’t in a playoff spot either. Do you punt on the season and begin trading players? Do you hold onto unrestricted free agents past the deadline in hopes they’ll help you if you make the playoffs? Today, I’m going to look at how there could be some cause for concern, given the difficulty of the Flames schedule for the rest of the season.
Before we move into the models, it’s important to note that team standings don’t necessarily correlate to wins or losses. The Flames demonstrated this last week when they beat the Canucks 5–2. However, standings can provide a roadmap for which teams are good and which aren’t, especially as the season progresses. A team playing the Sharks will obviously have a greater chance of winning a game than playing the Bruins, for example. So, one predicted game outcome doesn’t mean much, but when you predict the outcomes and model them over an entire season, trends begin to play out.
Average NHL strength of remaining schedule
For strength of schedule, there are two sites to look at. Those two sites are PowerRankings.com and Tankathon.com. I have taken the average of both websites to provide us with the closest possible chances of error. The lower the average number, the easier the schedule. So, the Washington Capitals leave American Thanksgiving with the hardest schedule remaining:
| Rank | Team Name | PowerRankingsGuru.com | Tankathon.com | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Capitals | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 | 1 | 2.5 |
| 3 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | New York Islanders | 3 | 4 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Florida Panthers | 8 | 3 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Flyers | 6 | 7 | 6.5 |
| 7 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | New Jersey Devils | 12 | 9 | 10.5 |
| 9 | Boston Bruins | 10 | 13 | 11.5 |
| 10 | Calgary Flames | 7 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | Ottawa Senators | 11 | 14 | 12.5 |
| 12 | Carolina Hurricanes | 20 | 6 | 13 |
| T-13 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 21 | 8 | 14.5 |
| T-13 | Detroit Red Wings | 13 | 16 | 14.5 |
| T-13 | Buffalo Sabres | 17 | 12 | 14.5 |
| 16 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 16 | 15 | 15.5 |
| 17 | Arizona Coyotes | 9 | 24 | 16.5 |
| T-18 | New York Rangers | 24 | 10 | 17 |
| T-18 | Vancouver Canucks | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| T-20 | Nashville Predators | 18 | 19 | 18.5 |
| T-20 | Chicago Blackhawks | 15 | 22 | 18.5 |
| T-22 | Edmonton Oilers | 25 | 18 | 21.5 |
| T-22 | San Jose Sharks | 22 | 21 | 21.5 |
| 24 | St Louis Blues | 19 | 25 | 22 |
| 25 | Minnesota Wild | 26 | 23 | 24.5 |
| 26 | Anaheim Ducks | 23 | 28 | 25.5 |
| 27 | Seattle Kraken | 27 | 27 | 27 |
| 28 | Colorado Avalanche | 29 | 26 | 27.5 |
| 29 | Vegas Golden Knights | 28 | 29 | 28.5 |
| T-30 | Dallas Stars | 31 | 30 | 30.5 |
| T-30 | Winnipeg Jets | 30 | 31 | 30.5 |
| 32 | Los Angeles Kings | 32 | 32 | 32 |
Some things to take note of when glancing at the table
The first and most obvious if the difference between the Western and Eastern Conferences. The Calgary Flames have the hardest schedule remaining in the West, sitting in tenth place. The next Western team to appear is the Arizona Coyotes, and they don’t show up until seventeenth place. This discrepancy between conferences results from six of the bottom seven teams coming from the West. So, Eastern teams have a harder schedule just plainly due to the fact that they don’t play these bottom teams as much. There are a whopping fourteen Western Conference teams listed with the easiest remaining schedules in a row, given that they play these bottom-feeding teams, e.g. against each other, more often.
The Kings, Stars, and Jets have all gotten off to good starts, and sit with the three easiest remaining schedules. That sits pretty well for all three of these teams and their playoff chances. I would be placing a bet on all three making it.
An uphill battle for Calgary
Focusing on the Flames, their quest for a playoff spot isn’t going to be easy. Starting tonight, their next 13 opponents are the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks, Minnesota Wild, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Minnesota Wild, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers. That is a crazy stretch of 13 games in a row. It is going to test if this Flames team is a playoff team, or if they should take a rebuild/retool direction. I would be placing my bet on the latter.
After getting off to a mediocre start, the Flames are going to have to scratch and claw their way to a playoff spot. Given that the Flames have the hardest schedule in the Western Conference by a significant margin, it’s going to be a massive uphill battle. Teams that the Flames are battling for the wild card spots—such as the Seattle Kraken, Anaheim Ducks, Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers, and St Louis Blues—have much easier schedules remaining.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
