The Calgary Flames are suddenly back in the playoff race as they don’t sit very far out of the second wild card spot in the Western Conference. Going 5–1–1 in their last seven has helped the cause out, and they’re looking like a much different team now than they were in October. Adjustments to the new coaches and systems, buy-in into the vision, the rise of the rookies, and a shared understanding that this roster may not look the same after the trade deadline are all contributing factors to the Flames’ turnaround.
The Flames have refocused themselves after the off-ice distractions as a team, but the major catalyst of said distractions may not be playing up to par anymore. Since Nikita Zadorov‘s trade request came to light and how his agent, Dan Milstein, portrayed him in subsequent tweets, the team has gotten better results—but has Zadorov seen better results too?
How Zadorov’s viewed on the team
In the grand scheme of a hockey player’s career, there’s no argument that Zadorov coming to Calgary provided a huge lift for the player in terms of results and impact. It essentially elevated his status in the league as a reliable defender, and his best seasons to date have been with the Flames. Now he’s a valuable trade chip that the Flames can command a good return for.
However, when the trade request was made public, the comments from his agent painted him as a deeply dissatisfied player. Milstein went as far as claiming Zadorov was the Flames’ best defenceman whose ice time was consistently too low.
Now, we all understand the business side of the sport. Having an agent in your corner who can boost your value in private negotiations is always a good thing. However, having an agent that’s willing to go straight into the public realm of social media to do the dirty work? Well, that’s a different story that can lead to detrimental outcomes. Suddenly, Zadorov’s agent placed a target on his own client’s back. Now on the ice, Zadorov has to produce and be effective, or he’ll turn out as a laughing stock with judgment from his teammates, management, the league, and more.
Well, has he lived up to the label his agent prescribed him? Or is he now crumbling under the new pressure?
Zadorov’s results before and after the trade request
So far this season, Zadorov’s been primarily a 5v5 defenceman as well, with the bulk of the penalty kill ice time going to Chris Tanev, MacKenzie Weegar and Noah Hanifin among the Flames’ blueliners. Zadorov slots in fourth, but it’s by some distance, and Rasmus Andersson would have more ice time as well if he wasn’t suspended. On top of that there are actually four forwards in Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, Yegor Sharangovich, and Blake Coleman who even have more penalty kill ice time than Zadorov.
All of this is to say, looking at 5v5 data is representative of Zadorov’s contributions, especially since I’m comparing his own play before and after. The biggest issue is the difference in games played before versus after being imbalanced, but I am addressing that by using rates per 60 minutes of ice time to at least make the comparison more adequate.
Using 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted stats from NaturalStatTrick.com, here are Zadorov’s results before and after the trade request. Before the request includes 12 games played up to and including the Flames’ game against the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 10, and after includes the five games played since then.
| GP | TOI | CF/60 | CA/60 | GF/60 | GA/60 | xGF/60 | xGA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 192:45 | 68.75 | 48.23 | 2.19 | 3.62 | 3.01 | 2.13 |
| 5 | 80:04 | 58.97 | 57.56 | 2.24 | 3.04 | 2.51 | 2.83 |
And to make the stats a bit easier to see, here are the differences in for versus against rates.
| Corsi Rate Difference | Goal Rate Difference | Expected Goal Rate Difference |
|---|---|---|
| 20.52 | -1.43 | 0.88 |
| 1.41 | -0.80 | -0.32 |
As seen in his first 12 games, Zadorov played a solid all-around game. His Corsi and expected goal rates were positive by a significant degree, he was just unlucky where the goals didn’t come for the Flames when he was on the ice while actual goals against were plentiful. At 5v5, he was on the ice for seven goals for while 12 goals were scored against.
His latest five games… have been a different story. Both his Corsi and expected goal rates dropped by a huge amount. His goal rate is a bit better but still negative, and this is due to being on the ice for three goals for and four goals against. But given the differences in Corsi and expected goals before and after, this suggests the goal differences is more likely to be due to goaltending putting up better results than defensive play.
He’s played with Nick DeSimone more as of late compared to having Weegar as a partner to start the season. When DeSimone was re-called, I wrote that he should not be paired up with Zadorov as that pairing did not have good results last year. Yet they’ve now logged nearly 100 minutes of 5v5 time together so far and well, they have not put up good results.
A marked decline for Zadorov
Before Zadorov’s trade request, he was arguably one of the Flames’ more valued players. He has captain qualities, is not afraid to speak his mind, plays well in his role, and is an all-around good human. However, now that it’s public info that he’s not happy in his role, he’s seeing worse results. Talk about agent-induced hubris. Zadorov can back up his agent for any comments made, but being labelled as the team’s best defenceman and seeing results that strongly suggest that Zadorov is in fact not the team’s best defenceman—that’s a pity.
The eye test confirms that he went from a solid top-four calibre defenceman to currently playing like he’s lost on the ice. Perhaps the distractions are better for the team as a whole and they’ve moved past it. But maybe for Zadorov, it’s made him worse as an individual player.
We’ll see how things change in the coming games, first whether the Zadorov-DeSimone pairing is kept together or broken up, and second whether Zadorov starts seeing better results regardless of his defensive partner. Let’s hope the current struggles Zadorov is undergoing are nipped in the bud as soon as possible.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
