2022–23 NHL goals saved above expected comparisons across the league: Week 2

Goaltending has been all over the map so far this season. In just the first few weeks, there have been wild swings in goalie performances. Some have already stood out as top goaltenders, while others are fluctuating week-over-week, or even game-to-game.

Goals saved above expected as of October 25, 2022

One way to objectively compare goaltenders is to evaluate their goals saved above expected (GSAx). For every shot, there’s an assigned expected goal (xG) value, and as a goaltender makes or doesn’t make saves based on expected values, the difference between their xG against and their actual goals against will start varying compared to other goaltenders.

With the randomness of goaltending seemingly happening not just season over season but at times even week over week, we can plot every goaltender’s GSAx to see how they stack up compared to the rest of the league. Using data visualisation, comparing goaltenders can be done quickly with a lot of context in each chart.

Last week, GSAx plots were presented from October 7 through October 18—the data being combined into a longer week. From here on out, each set of charts will be weekly from Wednesday’s games through to the following Tuesday’s games. This is to capture the additional slate of games typically played on Tuesdays, for no other reason than to have the most data available in a timely, yet weekly manner.

In addition to weekly GSAx plots, season-to-date charts will also be looked at to see how goalies stack up against one another over the course of a season. This will help highlight which goaltenders are among the best and who should be frontrunners for the Vezina Trophy. All data is from NaturalStatTrick.com.

Weekly goals saved above expected plots

The plots are split into each division, and then teams are ranked in order of the highest total team GSAx to the lowest. Each goaltender will then sit along the x-axis based on their GSAx totals. The colour of each goaltender is determined based on total shots against compared to the whole league (as opposed to per division)—the more shots a goaltender faces, the brighter and yellower their point; the fewer shots, the darker and bluer.

Similarly to the shots against colour being league-wide, the x-axis per plot is also scaled league-wide, based on the two individual goaltenders with the highest and lowest GSAx. This makes visual comparisons between the four plots a bit easier.

Pacific Division goaltenders

This past week, the Pacific division was a tale of two goaltending groups. About half of the division played at a net-positive level, led by Jacob Markstrom. The other half was less stellar, with Martin Jones finding himself at the bottom of the pack.

Thatcher Demko was the busiest Pacific goaltender facing the most shots this past week, but he was well below a breakeven GSAx mark, as the Canucks are the last team in the NHL to remain winless. More on Demko a bit later.

However, the division as a whole had a week where things were steadier than not. Aside from Jones, everyone was contained between -2.5 to 2.5 GSAx. Since the axes of the chart is scaled for all four divisions, this means that other goaltenders performed better (and maybe worse—since Jones is below -2.5, the chart accounts for this. Spoiler: he was not the worst this week).

Central Division goaltenders

The Central Division was quite similar to the Pacific—about half above the zero GSAx mark, and the other half below. However, there’s a couple standouts.

Alexandar Georgiev was one of the league’s busiest goaltenders, highlighted by his bright data point, and he ended up net-positive in GSAx behind the Colorado Avalanche’s solid defence.

Marc-Andre Fleury dug himself out of a big hole and was among the division’s best goalies this week after he was by and large the worst goalie in the league to open the year.

At the top of the division, Jordan Binnington had a light week but saved plenty of goals, while Karel Vejmelka struggled, being the worst Central goaltender with a fairly limited workload.

Metropolitan Division goaltenders

The league’s busiest goaltender this week was Tristan Jarry, facing a total of 119 shots against in three games played. He ended up just above zero for GSAx in a formidable effort.

Carter Hart continues to impress as a top goaltender in the Metropolitan—or rather in the league. His workload was light with just one game, but he still made more saves than expected nevertheless.

Igor Shesterkin and Jaroslav Halak had contrasting weeks—the reigning Vezina winner was good, his counterpart was not.

Atlantic Division goaltenders

Now the Atlantic definitely had the most interesting seven days. At the top of the league, Ilya Samsonov was the best goaltender this week in terms of GSAx. He led the Toronto Maple Leafs to two wins against the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets, before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Samsonov was in his own league this past week with no other goaltender particularly close.

On the other end of the spectrum, Alex Nedeljkovic was by far the league’s worst goaltender this week—with no other goaltender particularly close either. He was bested twice against the the Chicago Blackhawks and New Jersey Devils, giving up 10 goals against in limited play. Ville Husso was good in his appearance to get the Detroit Red Wings their only win this week.

Season-to-date goals saved above expected plots

It’s been a crazy week of hockey to say the least. Now turning to season-to-date plots, let’s check out the action. The plots are rescaled to account for different maximum and minimum GSAx values, but as above, all four divisions are scaled together to make the season-to-date comparisons easier.