Calgary Flames

A snapshot of the Calgary Flames’ Stanley Cup winning percentages

Darryl Sutter for the Jack Adams, Johnny Gaudreau for the Hart, Jacob Markstrom for the Vezina; the list goes on. The 2021–22 Calgary Flames have gotten league-wide attention for their unexpected ascent to the top and have gotten outstanding performances as an organisation. While they’re not going to win the Presidents’ Trophy, the Flames have been gaining more and more momentum on winning the Stanley Cup.

For a team like the Flames, until they actually get past the first round of the playoffs, all the hype in the world is still taken with a large grain of salt. A team not without its own playoff demons, they really do look poised to break the trend this season.

The team itself is still beating on the drum that they’re not in the playoffs yet—despite being clearly well on track to win the Pacific Division, they’re still approaching every game as if they need to lock in the two points every night for to clinch a playoff spot.

However, as cautious as the team and fans alike may be, the Flames can’t escape the math behind Stanley Cup models, and they’re genuinely looking as good as they’ve ever looked. Let’s break down how they rank across a few select projections.

Stanley Cup models

Different models account for different factors that go into a Stanley Cup prediction. Models can range from taking simple team metrics, while others can go deep into the components and account for individual players, linemates, and more. By looking at several models at once, we can get a sense of what the expectations of the Flames might be.

Anything can happen in the playoffs, but models are meant to be exactly that—models. Models can be wrong and often are, but they provide a strong basis for analysis and discussion.

So we’ll take a look at models from MoneyPuck, TheAthletic, FiveThirtyEight, Hockey-Reference, and Sports Club Stats to see how the Flames stack up. For all percentages, they’re taken as of March 29, 2022, prior to games being played.

Calgary’s MoneyPuck Cup odds

MoneyPuck’s model is particularly bullish on the Calgary Flames. One of eight teams already considered 100% for making the playoffs, Calgary has the highest Stanley Cup percentages out of all teams. For each table, we’ll list the teams in order of Cup-winning percentages.

TeamFirst RoundSecond RoundThird RoundFinalWin Cup

The Flames lead the way and have a 3.6 percentage point edge over the Toronto Maple Leafs for winning the Cup as per MoneyPuck. That’s a fairly big gap considering the next four teams have just a 1.0 percentage point gap.

Teams not listed in the top 5 include the Pittsburgh Penguins with 8.0%, the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7.5%, the Carolina Hurricanes at 6.9%, the Edmonton Oilers at 5.5%, and the Colorado Avalanche at 5.1%.

Calgary’s TheAthletic Cup odds

Dom Luszczyszyn’s season projections for TheAthletic aren’t as hot on the Flames, or rather, they’re much hotter on the Avalanche. These projections are a bit different in that they show the probability of where a team may finish. You can see that adding up each row adds to 100%, and that the values don’t contain decimal places either.

TeamFirst RoundSecond RoundThird RoundFinalWin Cup

Behind the Avalanche as the clear favourites in this model, the Flames and Florida Panthers are neck and neck for their odds. However, it looks as though the Flames are favoured to go for a deeper run than the Panthers given possible playoff matchups.

After Toronto, the Lightning, Penguins, and Minnesota Wild are tied with 6% chances at the Cup.

Calgary’s FiveThirtyEight Cup odds

From 538, there’s percentages for the making the playoffs, making the Final, and winning the Cup, so there’s a less information on the middle rounds. Also, they present chances greater than 99% as exactly that, rather than stating a complete 100% confidence.

TeamFirst RoundFinalWin Cup

Another model that has the Avalanche as heavy favourites, the trio of the Hurricanes, Panthers, and Flames are separated by intervals of two percentage points after a 10 percentage point gap with Colorado.

Calgary’s Hockey-Reference Cup odds

From Hockey-Reference, they only present chances at making the playoffs and chances at winning the Cup, i.e. there are no additional percentages for what happens in between. For the top five teams, they’re all considered locks for the playoffs here, and have varying degrees of Cup percentages.

TeamFirst RoundWin Cup

Again, the Flames and Panthers are virtually tied for Cup percentages, and the Avalanche actually sit a bit back at third. There’s a big drop between the Hurricanes and Penguins, but after that there’s the Wild at 6.3%, the St. Louis Blues at 5.8%, and the Leafs slot in at 5.6%.

Calgary’s Sports Club Stats Cup odds

Like Hockey-Reference, Sports Club Stats only has percentages for the playoffs and the Cup. Similarly, the top five teams here are also listed at 100% chances at the playoffs.

TeamFirst RoundWin Cup

Clearly, this model is extremely bullish on each division’s top team. What’s interesting though is how much the top four teams control the Cup percentages. The 20.7% mark for the Flames is the highest percentage outright in any model reviewed, and the top four teams account for 70.6% for the Cup. That’s a extremely high for a sport like hockey, but we’ll see how correct it is down the line.

A good time to go all-in

By the looks of it, all models are high on the Flames as they don’t just represent a team that’s first in the Pacific Division, but a team with some of the best underlying numbers in the whole league. It’s been over two months since the Flames last lost two games in a row—that’s something that definitely bodes well in the playoffs.

All models looked at has the Flames in the top five for Cup percentages. That honour is shared only with Florida—all other teams miss the top five in at least one model.

Finally, for all sports fans who have been looking forward to the day Canada launches online sports betting, the time has come. Some of the best apps coming to Ontario will be available April 4. With the launch of these private sportsbooks, fans will be able to take advantage of not sign up promotions but there will be way more things to bet on. It’s going to be a historic date for sports fans across Canada, and Canada clearly has its team.

Back to top button