TWC Power Rankings: Week 17

Welcome to Week 17 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis.  The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.


Rank Change Team Last Week Record TWCScore
1 Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1-0 39-11-2 720.0
2 Calgary Flames Calgary Flames 1-1-0 34-14-5 685.8
3 +1 San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks 1-0-0 30-16-7 676.8
4 -1 Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs 1-0-1 31-17-3 676.0
5 Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets 3-1-0 34-16-2 664.8
6 New York Islanders New York Islanders 1-0-1 30-15-6 664.1
7 Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights 0-2-0 29-21-4 653.5
8 +3 Boston Bruins Boston Bruins 1-0-2 28-17-7 650.9
9 Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins 2-2-0 28-18-6 649.5
10 +2 Montreal Canadiens Montreal Canadiens 1-0-1 29-18-6 647.2
11 -1 Nashville Predators Nashville Predators 1-1-0 31-19-4 646.6
12 +1 Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes 1-1-0 25-21-6 643.8
13 +1 Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild 0-1-1 26-22-4 632.4
14 +4 Dallas Stars Dallas Stars 3-0-0 27-21-4 628.6
15 -7 Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets 0-3-0 28-20-3 624.6
16 +3 St. Louis Blues St Louis Blues 1-0-0 23-22-5 620.6
17 -2 Washington Capitals Washington Capitals 1-1-0 28-18-6 613.9
18 +4 Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers 4-0-0 23-23-6 612.0
19 -3 Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres 1-2-0 25-20-6 605.8
20 -3 Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche 0-1-0 22-21-8 603.3
21 Arizona Coyotes Arizona Coyotes 0-0-1 23-23-5 587.7
22 -2 Florida Panthers Florida Panthers 1-1-0 21-21-8 587.5
23 +3 New Jersy Devils New Jersey Devils 2-1-0 20-24-7 586.9
24 +1 Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks 1-0-0 24-22-6 582.6
25 -2 Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers 0-0-2 23-24-5 581.5
26 -2 New York Rangers New York Rangers 1-2-0 22-22-7 574.2
27 +3 Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings 2-0-0 21-25-7 560.5
28 +3 Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks 2-0-0 20-24-9 557.0
29 -1 Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings 0-1-0 20-27-4 541.6
30 -1 Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators 0-2-0 19-28-5 540.3
31 -4 Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks 0-1-0 21-22-9 538.0

Power Ranking Notables

After last week’s lack of games, there is much more movement across our rankings this time around. Of course this movement is seen mainly outside of the top seven, safe for one minor change. The San Jose Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs swapped spots in Week 17, but the rest of the top seven teams remained the same.

As we move to the other to the other 24 teams, only two of those remained in the same position as week 16. The Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens jumped into the top 10, while the Nashville Predators fell just outside of that mark. The Carolina Hurricanes and Minnesota Wild both jumped a single spot during an up and down stretch.

A team that hasn’t gotten much awareness as of late would be the St. Louis Blues. They quietly moved up three spots this past week, and also have gotten themselves three points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Blues have gone from a prosperous off-season, to the basement of the league, to fringe playoff team. It has been an absolute roller-coaster season thus far, but they actually look to be a team to look out for. Jake Allen‘s numbers have improved slightly and from a statistics standpoint they are a top ten team. At the very least, pencil them in as the dark horse right now.

On the other side, the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche are trending in the wrong direction; dropping three spots each. Both teams at one point looked unbeatable, but now are on the outside of their respective conferences playoff races. Their offence is by no means lacking, but both team’s defensive games have taken a step back. What was once looking like a guarantee, both teams are heading into a fight for their post-season lives.

Heading further down the list, the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks finally escaped the basement. On their way out, they knocked the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks down the stairs. For the Senators, the season is frankly over and now it’s just a matter of time before more stars are shipped out of town. For the Ducks, they are still somehow in the race for a playoff spot. Their 9-3 blowout loss to the Jets doesn’t help their case, but if John Gibson‘s goaltending is lost then so are their chances at April hockey.

Biggest Gainer and Loser

Gainer: Philadelphia Flyers & Dallas Stars (+4)

Two undefeated weeks will easily have you jump a few spots. The Flyers are in the midst of a seven game winning streak, helped by a perfect 4-0-0 record last week. They still remain seven points out of a playoff spot, but they have given themselves a chance. The Stars on the other hand have catapulted into third place in the Central Division. Currently on a four game winning streak, the Stars finally look to be living up to expectations.

Loser: Columbus Blue Jackets (-7)

A 0-3-0 week gave the Jackets quite the tumble down our rankings. From 8th all the way to 15th, the Jackets are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. We’ve spoken about their potential problems off the ice coming up with the trade deadline, but on the ice they have looked a bit lost. All three of their losses last week were close, but they simply weren’t playing their normal style of game. Five losses in a row are sending this team in the completely wrong direction, with plenty of questions to be asked if it continues.


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

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15 thoughts on “TWC Power Rankings: Week 17

  1. What happened to your scores? Last week, the top teams were running 800-900. This week they’re running 700. You’d think a major change in your algorithm would be something mentioned in the article?

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    1. You’re correct, it does have to do with the recency (somewhat) but also there is an error in the weighting for one of our major stat categories. It affected every team equally so the actual rankings are unchanged, but the scores are lower than usual. This has been remedied and you’ll see the scores back to their normal ranges next week! Sorry for the mistake there, but thank you for the catch 🙂

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