Andrew Mangiapane has been a topic of conversation this season, due to his lack of production. He’s been all over the Calgary Flames’ lineup, but seems to have finally found an effective spot next to Selke contender Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. More on that later.
So far in 2022–23, Mangiapane has seven goals and eight assists for 15 points in 38 games. That equates to a 15 goal, 32 point season. Definitely a massive step back from his astonishing 35 goal, 55 point season in 2021-22, which earned him a three year, 5.8M AAV contract in the summer. So far, he definitely hasn’t performed to that contract. Is it a sign that this is just the new norm for Mangiapane, or is it just bad luck in 2022-23? I lean towards the latter, and we will look into a bunch of reasons why. If you’re in a fantasy league and Mangiapane is available on waivers, now is the time to pick him up.
By the numbers
The easiest number to look at when it comes to a player underperforming is their shooting percentage. In his career season in 2021–22, Mangiapane was shooting 18.9%. In 2022–23, Mangiapane is shooting only 8.9%, which is a decrease of exactly ten percent. His career shooting average is 15.9%. So, we can expect Mangiapane to improve in the second half of the 2022–23 season, and regress back to his career average.
Note: All of the following numbers are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com.
A deeper look into Mangiapane’s 5v5 metrics vs the team 5v5 average tells us a story of upcoming success:
|STATISTIC (5v5 SVA)||CF%||SCF%||HDCF%||xGF%||PDO|
Mangiapane is above the team average in every single category. He ranks 10th in CF% and SCF%, 12th in HDCF%, and seventh in xGF%, among regulars this season. When comparing to the team average, Mangiapane is incredibly similar in every metric. The largest differentiation is HDCF%, to which Mangiapane is 1.21% below. However, the one statistic that should stand out is PDO.
If you’re unfamiliar with PDO, it uses a team or players on ice shooting percentage and save percentage, to determine its measure of luck. A rating of 1.00 means that a player is neither unlucky or lucky, so their results are right where they should be. A measure below 1.00, like 0.950 for example, means a player is very unlucky, and their luck should improve—emphasis on should. On the other hand, a PDO value of 1.050 represents a player that is getting very lucky, and should expect some regression.
Looking at Mangiapane’s PDO value of 0.957, we can expect a massive improvement from him, and he’s been very unlucky through the first half of the 2022–23 season. Of regulars on the Flames, only Chris Tanev has a lower PDO value. So, Mangiapane has been playing to the Flames average, but we can expect some bounceback to his 2021–22 form when looking at a PDO value.
Models are telling a similar story
The RAPM chart from Evolving-Hockey.com shows a very similar story. Mangiapane is generating immense expected goals and chances for, demonstrated by the xGF/60 and CF/60 columns. However, his GF/60 value is very low. In essence, Mangiapane is generating a ton, but the results just haven’t come yet. It is very uncommon to see the values for GF/60 and xGF/60 being that far a part, so we should expect the GF/60 value to increase soon. It seems like Mangiapane has been generating a ton of chances in recent weeks, so eventually they have to start going in.
Mangiapane’s isolated impact from HockeyViz.com shows where Mangiapane is generating offence from, and how he’s been so effective. Mangiapane has an astounding +14% at even-strength offence, and is the one Flames player who seems to be generating at the net-front. As we know, the Flames are having troubles getting to the dangerous areas of the ice. Mangiapane is one player who isn’t generating offence from the points, but rather getting excess shot opportunities from close to the net. Since generating at the net-front is the most effective area to score, Mangiapane’s numbers should be going up soon.
Mangiapane has also been a key on the penalty kill, with an overall percentage of -4%. The defensive zone hasn’t been a strength like it was in previous years, but is still above average at -1%.
Glancing at Calgary’s 5v5 Offence with and without Mangiapane, we can see a similar story. In the offensive zone, the Flames sit at +21% with Mangiapane, generating a ton of shots from the net-front and right point. Without Mangiapane, the Flames are generating shots from either point, but are having problems getting any shots from in tight. Moving over to the defensive end, where a value of +6% with Mangiapane is less than ideal. The opposition is getting a ton of chances from up close with Mangiapane on the ice, while are at -11% and limiting chances in tight without him.
Expect things to turn around for Mangiapane
Andrew Mangiapane has not had the success he wants in the first half of the 2022–23 season. He is currently on pace for a 15-goal, 32-point season, which is much lower than the dominant 35-goal, 55-point season we saw in 2021–22. He’s shooting 8.9%, which is much lower than his career average of 15.9%. His PDO value of 0.957 tells us that he should start to see some improvements soon, as he’s been extremely unlucky.
Mangiapane recently got placed on a line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. In the 65 minutes they’ve played together at 5on5, the line has a 69.38 CF%, 71.54 SCF%, 78.83 HDCF%, and a 73.59 xGF%. Those numbers are absolutely incredible, and we should see that translate to the points column in heavy fashion.
Mangiapane is generating a ton of chances and shots from key areas of the ice, so the results should start to come around soon. If you need a good buy-low candidate in fantasy, or a guy to bet on to score a goal, Mangiapane should be your guy. The numbers and eye-test say he’s about to pop off, so be ready to eat some bread!
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire