Welcome back to the TWC Playoff Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Playoff Power Rankings? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||+9||St Louis Blues||2-0||4-2||1025.7|
|8||+1||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1||4-3||961.5|
|9||+6||New York Rangers||3-1||4-3||903.8|
Power Ranking Notables
What. A. Week.
The first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs are in the books after five Game 7s to wrap things up over the weekend. A few shocking exits and outstanding performances that will live in the books for a while, but for the teams still in the hunt, it is just a stepping stone.
For the second week in a row the Colorado Avalanche are the number one team in the TWC NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Power Rankings. Not really a shock, as the clean sweep of the Nashville Predators have them well rested ahead of round two. You can see by their TWCScore that they are ahead by a country mile, but things should be interesting against the St. Louis Blues.
The Calgary Flames jumped eleven (!!) spots this week after finishing off the Dallas Stars last night in a Game 7 overtime thriller. The main story coming from this series was that Jake Oettinger could be the Conn Smythe winner after losing in round one. What a performance.
So much so that even with the Flames’ dominant underlying numbers—which has them top three in every category measured in our model—the Stars almost stole this series. Of course next up for the Flames is the first Battle of Alberta in 31 years, which is bound to be highlight for the entire hockey world.
As we mentioned earlier, the Blues were able to take care of the Minnesota Wild a bit easier than expected in six games. They are the number three team this week thanks to a wealth of top five stats. Will be interesting to see how they approach the series with the Avalanche.
If that wasn’t enough, our fourth ranked team, the Edmonton Oilers, are playing the second place team in the aforementioned Battle of Alberta. After Round 1, our top four teams are playing each other in the Western Conference, which leads me to believe that the winner will come out of that side regardless. The Oilers were pushed to seven games by the Los Angeles Kings, but it was the Connor McDavid show the last two games. Going to be tough to contain the madness.
The Florida Panthers were about a minute away from going down 3–1 in their series, and a missed empty net by Washington’s Garnet Hathaway could have sealed the deal had it gone in. Instead, the Panthers came back and won that game and the next two to take their first series win in what feels like forever. The Panthers showed a bit of nerves compared to the regular season, but a Florida rival matchup should be just what they need to continue their quest.
The Carolina Hurricanes, who came in sixth this week, won the “home-bowl” series where they took a seven game thriller over the Boston Bruins. Only the home team won games during this battle, which bodes well for the Canes come Round 2.
The Pittsburgh Penguins came in seventh this week, despite being eliminated by the New York Rangers. This was the only matchup here where the losing team was ranked higher in our model. The Penguins were by far the better team statistically and came within a goal of reaching the second round. You can’t help but wonder if they had their health, what could have been. The Rangers don’t match up great against the Canes, but could be interesting if they could steal another series.
Finally, as I am sure you all have heard, the Tampa Bay Lightning won their series in seven games over the Toronto Maple Leafs. This was a coin toss series that came down to one goal again. The champs are the champs for a reason.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.