Calgary Flames

The Calgary Flames are inching closer to clinching a playoff spot and the Pacific Division crown

The Calgary Flames have bounced back after a tough skid last week. With three consecutive losses to the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and St. Louis Blues where they earned just one point, the Flames are now on a three-game winning streak. They kicked off their West Coast road trip on Monday, and have earned wins against the Kings, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks, the latter two on a back-to-back.

Now at the 71 games played mark, the postseason is right around the corner, and the Pacific Division-leading Flames are inching closer and closer to clinching a berth. As it stands right now, their magic number to clinch is down to just 4.0.

Calgary’s magic numbers

A magic number is the term used to track a team’s progress towards clinching a particular spot in the standings. It is always tied to another team as well. From our friends at the reliable Wikipedia, this is what a magic number technically is:

In certain sports, a magic number is a number used to indicate how close a front-running team is to clinching a division title and/or a playoff spot. It represents the total of additional wins by the front-running team or additional losses (or any combination thereof) by the rival teams after which it is mathematically impossible for the rival teams to capture the title in the remaining number of games

Sportsnet’s Pat Steinberg broke down the magic number scenarios for the Flames after last night’s win:

The Flames need to be ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights such that Vegas cannot mathematically catch them in order for the Flames to clinch a playoff spot. This is because the Golden Knights are currently the first team outside the wild card picture. Flames regulation wins and Golden Knights regulation losses drop the number by 1.0, any overtime or shootout loss by either team drops the magic number by 0.5.

Similarly, the Flames need to be ahead of the Edmonton Oilers such that Edmonton cannot mathematically catch them in order to clinch the Pacific Division. Same logic as the above, this applies to the Oilers because they are currently one spot outside the Pacific Division lead. Flames regulation wins and Oilers regulation losses drop the number by 1.0, any overtime or shootout loss by either team drops the magic number by 0.5.

When a magic number reaches zero, that scenario is confirmed.

Earliest playoff berth clinching scenario

A combination of Flames wins and Golden Knights losses is required to clinch a playoff spot. Based on the NHL schedule, the Flames could clinch a playoff spot as early as next week, Tuesday April 12. This is what needs to happen for that to occur:

  • CGY @ SEA – April 9 – Flames win
  • VGK vs. ARI – April 9 – Golden Knights loss
  • CGY vs. SEA – April 12 – Flames win
  • VGK @ VAN – April 12 – Golden Knights loss

A playoff spot is all but guaranteed for the Flames. As long as they win four of their next 11 games, they’ll make it regardless of what Vegas does. To even have a chance, Vegas cannot lose more than three games in regulation the rest of the way.

Earliest division clinching scenario

A combination of Flames wins and Oilers losses is required to clinch the division. Based on the NHL schedule, the Flames could clinch the Pacific Division crown as early as next Saturday, April 16. This is what needs to happen for that to occur:

  • CGY @ SEA – April 9 – Flames win
  • EDM vs. COL – April 9 – Oilers loss
  • CGY vs. SEA – April 12 – Flames win
  • EDM @ MIN – April 12 – Oilers loss
  • CGY vs. VGK – April 14 – Flames win
  • EDM @ NSH – April 14 – Oilers loss
  • CGY vs. ARI – April 16 – Flames win
  • EDM vs. VGK – April 16 – Oilers loss

With the way the Oilers have been playing the last little while, it’s unlikely they lose four consecutive games, but with Colorado, Minnesota, Nashville, and Vegas all on the docket for the next week or so, it could happen. This is the earliest possible scenario for the Flames to win the Pacific, but they control their own destiny. If they can go 7–3–1 in their next 11 games to round out the season, they’ll clinch the division even if the Oilers finish their schedule 10–0–0.

Time to scoreboard watch

Flames fans should be paying close attention to the out-of-town scoreboard the next couple weeks. With realistic clinching scenarios starting as early as the middle of next week, it’s a fun time to be a Flames fan.

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