The fourth annual TWC Calgary Flames Over/Under Predictions contest closed for submissions this weekend when the Flames kicked off their regular season. They’re one game below .500 but there is clearly lots of runway to go. We had a large number of Flames fans submit predictions to our poll, and there were some distinct trends in the answers.
Here are the results from past seasons:
Here’s how the results of this year’s poll broke down.
|Prediction||Mark||Consensus||Over %||Under %|
|Johnny Gaudreau Points||78.5||Over||65%||35%|
|Sean Monahan Goals||19.5||Over||81%||19%|
|Elias Lindholm Goals||26.5||Over||68%||32%|
|Matthew Tkachuk PIMs||82.5||Under||48%||52%|
|Mikael Backlund CF%||52.5||Over||58%||42%|
|Andrew Mangiapane Goals||22.5||Over||71%||29%|
|Dillon Dube Points||39.5||Under||42%||58%|
|Milan Lucic Points||24.5||Under||16%||84%|
|Blake Coleman Points||44.5||Over||58%||42%|
|Glenn Gawdin Games Played||19.5||Under||35%||65%|
|Brad Richardson Points||19.5||Under||6%||94%|
|Tyler Pitlick Goals||9.5||Under||32%||68%|
|Nikita Zadorov Crosschecking Penalties||24.5||Under||35%||65%|
|Chris Tanev Blocks||164.5||Over||65%||35%|
|Noah Hanifin Points||34.5||Over||71%||29%|
|Rasmus Andersson Powerplay Points||13.5||Under||48%||52%|
|Juuso Valimaki ATOI||16:59||Under||29%||71%|
|Oliver Kylington Games Played||34.5||Over||52%||48%|
|Erik Gudbranson Games Played||34.5||Under||45%||55%|
|Michael Stone Games Played||34.5||Under||32%||68%|
|Jacob Markstrom Starts||65.5||Under||42%||58%|
|Daniel Vladar Wins||10.5||Under||39%||61%|
|Team Double Digit Goal Scorers||9.5||Under||39%||61%|
|Team Longest Winning Streak||5.5||Over||52%||48%|
|Team Division Finish||3.5||Over||55%||45%|
|Team Trade deadline moves||2.5||Under||35%||65%|
|Team Total Wins||40.5||Over||71%||29%|
|Team Wins against Oilers||2.5||Over||61%||39%|
Most lopsided overs
Sean Monahan Goals: 19.5
- This was the most lopsided over with over 8% of respondents picking Monahan to get back to the 20 goal mark. In the season opener on Saturday night against the Oilers, Monahan only played 15:25, the sixth most out of all forwards. It’s a little concerning for a guy who many are hoping will move back up to top-six center quality. He had just two shots in the game as well, but had three shot attempts and two scoring chances. The quality of shots were good, but he’ll need to do a lot more to get back to a 20 goal pace. It’s early of course, and coming off offseason surgery isn’t easy. With a few more games under his belt, perhaps Monahan will return to form.
Team Total Wins: 40.5
- This mark is essentially the playoff mark. The last full season was the 2018–19 season that saw the Colorado Avalanche enter the postseason as the lowest ranked team and had 38 wins. Over 70% of respondents feel the Flames will surpass this mark and therefore make the playoffs. I love the optimism and in a division where there are likely two playoff spots up for grabs, the Flames have a legit shot to take one of those spots. Their loss to the Oilers wasn’t ideal by any means, but their ability to drive the offense and push the play was very encouraging. If they play that way every night they’ll probably win more often than not.
Noah Hanifin Points: 34.5
- Over 70% of respondents are predicting that Hanifin will have the best offensive season of his career. His current career-high is 33 points scored in the 2018–19 season. It’ll be interesting to see what untapped offensive ability Hanifin has, if at all. Now that Mark Giordano is gone, a spot on the top PP unity is available and Hanifin is vying for that opportunity. So far, it’s been Rasmus Andersson on that top unit who played 3:45 on the PP the other night. With how ineffective the power play was, perhaps Hanifin can steal that job away and rack up some more points.
Andrew Mangiapane Goals: 22.5
- Over 70% of respondents also believe Mangiapane will hit the 23 goal mark or better. It’s hard to say anything against this prediction with how Mangiapane’s progression has gone the past few years, and he kicked things off nicely with a goal in his first game. Hopefully Mangiapane can also hit a career high with 23 goals, passing his previous high of 18 set last season.
Most lopsided unders
Brad Richardson Points: 19.5
- Starting the season on the injured reserve isn’t a great way to kick things off, but this was our most lopsided under with 94% of respondents predicting Richardson to not hit the 20 point mark. Last season Richardson paced for 19 points. Over the past four seasons combined , he’s paced for 21 points. He’s a decently consistent player, but this will ultimately come down to how often he plays. With Glenn Gawdin showing he can play in the NHL, it will be hard for Richardson to crack the lineup on a consistent basis.
Milan Lucic Points: 24.5
- Most respondents did not take the bait and predict that Lucic will come back to Earth after an incredible 2021 season that saw him put up 23 points in 56 games. However, over Lucic’s time in Calgary, he’s played at a 28 point pace, and is almost a lock to play all 82 games if he’s healthy. This was a massively lopsided item with 84% of respondents picking the under, but Lucic has been a very consistent player the past few seasons and could surprise people. Of course, time catches up with all of us, and Lucic played just 12:18 the other night.
Juuso Valimaki ATOI: 16:59
- It’s hard to predict Valimaki’s results this season with how Darryl Sutter is choosing to play his defense. For the opener, the Flames chose to roll with seven defenders, which greatly limited Valimaki’s ice time. Splitting time with Oliver Kylington, Valimaki played just 12:03, while Kylington played for just 3:27. Assuming the Flames will ice a normal 12/6 roster now that Blake Coleman is back from his suspension, it’s not a stretch to say that Valimaki could play at least 16 minutes per night. We’ll have to see how things go, but at this point the 71% of people who took the under are sitting pretty.
The following four predictions were split essentially down the middle with a 50/50 split, plus or minus a couple percentage points These four predictions will be incredibly interesting to watch as the season rolls on.
- Matthew Tkachuk PIMs: 82.5
- Rasmus Andersson Powerplay Points: 13.5
- Oliver Kylington Games Played: 34.5
- Team Longest Winning Streak: 5.5
On your marks
The over/unders are set, every team has played at least one game, and hockey is back to full-tilt in the NHL. We’ll see over time how each threshold fares and if any marks are reached. Good luck to everyone who submitted, and to the Flames as they seek to get back into the playoffs.
Photo by Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images