After the trade deadline, a number of teams that made significant moves are already starting to see a return on their investment. The Boston Bruins shot to the top of our East Division, while the Florida Panthers also made a significant jump themselves. Combine that with a number of undefeated streaking teams, and this week’s TWC Power Rankings has a lot of movement.
Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Central Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | – |  | Carolina Hurricanes | 2-1-0 | 29-10-4 | 807.5 |
| 4 | +6 |  | Florida Panthers | 2-0-1 | 28-12-5 | 784.7 |
| 9 | -3 |  | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1-2-0 | 29-13-2 | 742.1 |
| 14 | +3 |  | Dallas Stars | 2-0-1 | 17-14-12 | 708.6 |
| 17 | -3 |  | Nashville Predators | 1-2-0 | 24-21-1 | 658.6 |
| 18 | +2 |  | Chicago Blackhawks | 2-1-0 | 21-19-5 | 653.8 |
| 25 | +3 |  | Detroit Red Wings | 2-1-0 | 16-24-6 | 596.6 |
| 28 | -1 |  | Columbus Blue Jackets | 0-2-1 | 15-22-9 | 564.2 |
The Carolina Hurricanes remained on top in the Central Division this week after going 2-1-0, but the Florida Panthers are hot on their heels. The Panthers did one point better last week, with a 2-0-1 record, but still remain one point back of the Hurricanes. The Panthers trade deadline acquisitions of Sam Bennett and Brandon Montour already look to be paying off for the club, but it’s absolutely anyone’s guess who of the big three comes out of this division when it is all said and done.
The fourth seed remains hotly contested with the Nashville Predators still just clinging on for dear life. The Chicago Blackhawks sit two points back with one game in hand, while the Stars sit three points back with three games in hand. Our model is giving the edge to the Stars, which would make the most sense, but still lots of runway left.
East Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | +7 |  | Boston Bruins | 4-0-0 | 25-12-6 | 766.1 |
| 10 | -3 |  | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-1-1 | 28-14-3 | 737.7 |
| 11 | -2 |  | Washington Capitals | 2-2-0 | 29-13-4 | 734.3 |
| 12 | -7 |  | New York Islanders | 0-2-0 | 27-13-4 | 728.4 |
| 13 | +3 |  | New York Rangers | 4-0-0 | 23-16-5 | 724.4 |
| 19 | -1 |  | Philadelphia Flyers | 1-2-1 | 20-18-7 | 651.8 |
| 30 | – |  | Buffalo Sabres | 2-1-1 | 12-26-7 | 559 |
| 31 | -6 |  | New Jersey Devils | 0-4-0 | 14-24-6 | 555 |
The Boston Bruins acquisitions of Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar, and Mike Reilly look to be brilliant at this stage in the game. For a team that was maybe just going to hold onto the fourth spot in the division, the Bruins now look to make a push even further up the standings after four straight wins.
The Bruins weren’t the only four win team last week, with the New York Rangers continuing to pour it on late in the game. They have a wide gap to bridge to get into the fourth spot, either ahead of the Bruins or Pittsburgh Penguins, but it’s not completely over yet. The math is hard, but the Rangers have been simply on a tear as of late. Crazier things have happened.
North Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | -5 |  | Toronto Maple Leafs | 0-2-2 | 28-12-5 | 766 |
| 8 | +4 |  | Edmonton Oilers | 1-0-0 | 26-15-2 | 750.4 |
| 15 | -7 |  | Winnipeg Jets | 2-2-0 | 27-15-3 | 702.9 |
| 16 | -1 |  | Montreal Canadiens | 2-2-0 | 19-14-9 | 697.1 |
| 20 | +6 |  | Vancouver Canucks | 1-0-0 | 17-18-3 | 651.5 |
| 21 | +1 |  | Calgary Flames | 2-1-0 | 19-22-3 | 647.6 |
| 26 | +5 |  | Ottawa Senators | 2-1-0 | 15-26-4 | 584.9 |
In the North Division, things are somewhat set in stone. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, and Winnipeg Jets are playoff bound. Where the standings finish in a few weeks has yet to be determined, but the Jets and Oilers are bound to make things interesting at the top at least.
To determine the fourth spot in the North, the Montreal Canadiens have the easiest path at this point in time. A three game set against the Calgary Flames this week will likely be a big determining factor if they can in fact hold onto the fourth spot, but playing .500 hockey should be enough to get them mathematically ahead of the Flames and even the Vancouver Canucks.
In more uplifting news, the Canucks returned to action last night against the Maple Leafs and staged an inspiring comeback after their lengthy COVID absence. They got a big boost in our rankings this week due to the one win.
West Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | – |  | Colorado Avalanche | 2-0-0 | 30-9-4 | 858.7 |
| 2 | +2 |  | Vegas Golden Knights | 4-0-0 | 31-11-2 | 830.5 |
| 5 | +6 |  | Minnesota Wild | 3-0-0 | 27-13-3 | 777.7 |
| 22 | +2 |  | Arizona Coyotes | 1-2-0 | 20-20-5 | 623.9 |
| 23 | -4 |  | St Louis Blues | 0-2-0 | 19-18-6 | 607.9 |
| 24 | -3 |  | San Jose Sharks | 0-4-0 | 18-22-4 | 596.8 |
| 27 | -4 |  | Los Angeles Kings | 0-2-0 | 16-20-6 | 581.9 |
| 29 | – |  | Anaheim Ducks | 2-2-0 | 14-25-7 | 560 |
Finally out West, the top three teams in the division were a combined 9-0-0 last week. Safe to say the top of this division is all in the elite category.
The fourth spot looks to be down to the St. Louis Blues and Arizona Coyotes. We have spoken about both teams in length over the past few weeks, so your guess is as good as ours as to who owns it at the end of the season. Our model is leaning towards the Coyotes, but the margin is very slim.
At the end of the day, the prize for winning that final playoff spot is a first round matchup with the Colorado Avalanche or Vegas Golden Knights. Gulp.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Previous Weeks: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13
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