Power Rankings

TWC Power Rankings 2021: Week 13

The North Division saw a lot of movement in this week’s TWC Power Rankings thanks to a couple of perfect weeks from its top teams as well as a winless week from its worst. The team currently atop the rankings remains one from the West Division, while a new team manages to find themselves at the absolute bottom. The TWC Power Rankings for Week 13 of the 2021 season are here.

Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Central Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Carolina Hurricanes2-0-127-9-4816.0
Tampa Bay Lightning2-1-028-11-2777.5
Florida Panthers0-3-026-12-4730.6
Nashville Predators3-1-023-19-1695.9
Dallas Stars2-1-115-14-11682.3
Chicago Blackhawks2-1-019-18-5649.4
Columbus Blue Jackets1-2-015-20-8583.4
Detroit Red Wings1-1-114-23-6573.9

The top three teams within the Central Division continue to reorganize themselves week after week. The Carolina Hurricanes retain their top spot in the division after going 2-0-1 and move up one spot to third overall. The Tampa Bay Lightning remained in second behind the Hurricanes, but not by much in both our rankings and the standings.

The Florida Panthers were the only team that took a significant step back this week, after going 0-3-0. The Panthers lost two against the Hurricanes and one to the Dallas Stars, which resulted in the significant drop. They still remain a top 10 team across all categories measured in our model, which means their winning percentage this past week was the only reason behind their drop.

The Nashville Predators continue to distance themselves from the rest of the teams in the final playoff position. The Preds underlying numbers have improved in recent weeks as they placed 12th in CF%, 11th in HDCF%, and 10th in SV%. They are six points up on Dallas for the time being, but the Stars do have three games in hand. From trade deadline sellers to playoff push in a short amount of time, the Predators have been on one wild ride this season.

East Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
New York Islanders3-1-027-11-4795.5
Pittsburgh Penguins3-1-027-13-2758.4
Washington Capitals2-2-027-11-4740.7
Boston Bruins2-2-121-12-6711.4
New York Rangers2-1-119-16-6686.3
Philadelphia Flyers2-2-119-16-6667.5
New Jersey Devils1-3-014-20-6589.9
Buffalo Sabres2-2-010-25-6536.2

The New York Islanders retained their top spot this week after a 3-1-0 record. The Islanders made a power move to acquire Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac late last week, in addition to Braydon Coburn last night. The Islanders are going all in, and that really isn’t a shock as they are one of the strongest analytic teams in the league.

The Pittsburgh Penguins continued their surge up the standings this week, also going 3-1-0. The Penguins underlying numbers are decent, with highlights coming with a 9th ranking in xGF% & SCF%. The team clearly thinks they can make some noise in the post season, after acquiring Jeff Carter from the Kings, but time will tell if their goaltending (ranked 17th in SV%) will hold up.

The Boston Bruins made a big play last night for Taylor Hall, clearly thinking they have what it takes to retain the final playoff spot in the division. Up four points on the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers, with two games in hand, history would tell us they have a good shot at that.

North Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Toronto Maple Leafs3-0-028-10-3832.9
Winnipeg Jets3-0-025-13-3741.5
Edmonton Oilers2-1-125-15-2720.4
Montreal Canadiens1-3-017-12-9688.6
Calgary Flames1-1-017-21-3627.7
Vancouver Canucks0-0-016-18-3587.4
Ottawa Senators0-4-013-25-4532.6

Moving up north to the all Canadian Division, the Toronto Maple Leafs went all out with their acquisitions of Nick Foligno and David Rittich yesterday to further clarify their contender status. The Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers have also distanced themselves enough from the fourth spot where it looks extremely likely that these two teams will meet in the first round of the playoffs.

Where things get interesting is that fourth spot with the Montreal Canadiens, Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks. The Canadiens hold the edge here, and mathematically are tough to catch, but it’s not entirely set in stone. The Calgary Flames have been on an absolutely downward spiral as of late and the Canucks haven’t touched the ice in a long time, but if the Canadiens continue to play at roughly a 1-3-0 pace then it’s not entirely impossible they are supplanted in the standings.

West Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Colorado Avalanche3-1-028-9-4839.7
Vegas Golden Knights3-1-027-11-2798.0
Minnesota Wild1-2-124-13-3726.5
St Louis Blues3-1-019-16-6666.1
San Jose Sharks1-2-018-18-4639.6
Los Angeles Kings2-2-016-18-6626.5
Arizona Coyotes1-3-019-18-5624.1
Anaheim Ducks1-2-012-23-7545.5

The Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights continued their dominance in the West Division this past week, with both teams going 3-1-0. I think the majority of the hockey world would love to see a seven game series between these two teams come playoff season (no disrespect to the Minnesota Wild).

The fourth spot remains hotly contested, with the St. Louis Blues holding the edge after finally getting back on track with a 3-1-0 record. This season could be extremely similar to a few years ago when the team sold at the deadline, yet still made a playoff push. They hold a one point edge over Arizona, with one game in hand, for the time being. This race isn’t going to be decided until the final week.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Weeks: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12

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