Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||+3||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-1||43-20-6||761.4|
|5||-2||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||41-18-10||747.2|
|7||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||38-24-8||739.2|
|14||+1||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-1-1||33-22-15||695.4|
|18||-11||Toronto Maple Leafs||0-2-1||35-25-9||679.3|
|19||-6||New York Islanders||0-2-1||35-23-9||676.4|
|23||-4||New York Rangers||1-2-0||36-28-4||659.2|
|24||+2||Los Angeles Kings||2-0-0||27-35-6||655.2|
|25||-2||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||28-28-12||655|
|29||-1||San Jose Sharks||1-2-1||29-35-5||616.9|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||2-1-0||17-48-5||507.2|
Power Ranking Notables
The Boston Bruins still reign supreme in Week 23, thanks to league leading 98 points and a 2-1-0 week. The Philadelphia Flyers, although unable to gain the top spot, are easily the league’s hottest team. Nine wins in a row have pushed them into a tie for first place in the Metropolitan Division. Everything is clicking at the right time for the Flyers who look ready for an extended run this postseason.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, thanks to a 2-1-1 week and excellent underlying numbers, jumped two spots into the top three. As a result of the Lightning’s decent week, and the Flyers’ ongoing streak, the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues fell two spots a piece. Although sporting winning records the past seven days, both teams just got the unfortunate result due to two hotter teams performing better. Still though, those are your top five teams right now and most likely your top contenders.
Two Metropolitan Division teams, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes, enjoyed minor jumps of three places apiece. Both teams had weaker previous weeks, so two wins for both teams keeps them on pace. The Penguins have a bit of a buffer in the Metro, but the Canes are tied for the final wild card spot. Still lots of time left, but more weeks like this are needed.
Another two teams that appeared to be linked, the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames both enjoyed a five position jumps. Ranking 11th and 12th this week respectively, the teams are positioned well within the Pacific Division. The Oilers held the division lead at one point, while the Flames were riding a three game win streak until a heartbreaking loss to the Golden Knights last night. If the season ended today, it would be a Battle of Alberta in the playoffs, which is something everyone needs to see.
Two interesting teams this week: Florida Panthers and New York Islanders. Florida only went 1-0-1, yet jumped seven spots. They have mediocre underlying numbers and poorer goaltending, so its very confusing why such a week would have them make a bigger jump. It’s most likely a result of a poorer last week combined with other teams fairing poorer around them. Let’s keep an eye on them next week.
The Islanders are heading the other direction. Down six spots and 2-7-3 in their past twelve games, the Islanders are now out of a playoff spot. Can they hold on enough to sneak in the playoffs? We will wait and see but recent history points to an unfavourable result.
Special shotout to the LA Kings, riding a five game win streak, who are now up to the 24th spot. It hasnt been a good season, but a little bright spot at the end is good to see.
Biggest Gainer & Loser
Winnipeg Jets (+9)
Nestled in the heated Western Conference, the Winnipeg Jets had a strong 2-0 week, and were able to gain nine spots. We haven’t touched too much on the Jets this season, who are Connor Hellebuyck’s team right now. Excellent goaltending is keeping the Jets alive, but a 2-0-0 week has them heading in the right direction.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-11)
Just when things were getting so promising, a 0-2-1 week sent the Maple Leafs falling back down our rankings. They still comfortably sit in a playoff spot for the time being, which is the be all end all, but not being able to sustain their great play from last week is a tad concerning. This fall is more likely to do with the fact that they rose so quickly last week. Expect this to stabilize with a few wins next week.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: