Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||–||St Louis Blues||3-0-0||39-17-10||768|
|6||-1||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-2-0||41-19-5||747.2|
|7||+11||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||35-23-8||739|
|8||-2||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||36-23-8||736.9|
|13||-2||New York Islanders||0-1-2||35-21-8||696.8|
|15||+2||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-2-0||32-21-14||695.9|
|19||-7||New York Rangers||2-2-0||35-26-4||674.1|
|23||+2||New Jersey Devils||2-0-2||26-27-12||654.5|
|26||+2||Los Angeles Kings||3-0-0||25-35-6||647.5|
|28||+2||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||28-33-4||635.7|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-2-1||15-47-5||466.4|
Power Ranking Notables
For the first time in a while, we have limited movement atop the TWC Power Rankings. The Boston Bruins reign supreme atop the NHL standings and are the number one team this week. Even though they went 2-1-0, and with fierce competition right below them, their best W% in the NHL combined with their strong underlying numbers kept them in the #1 spot.
The Colorado Avalanche, St, Louis Blues, and Philadelphia Flyers are hot on their trails. In fact all three teams are positioned so closely together that it could have been any combination of them from the second to fourth positions.
Just how hot are these teams? The Blues are riding a seven game winning streak, while the Avalanche and Flyers are riding six game win streaks. The league’s best teams are surely proving that this is indeed the case, and the Bruins best be worried about their number one ranking moving into next week.
The Washington Capitals used a 2-1-0 week to push their way to the number five positions. Loading up at the deadline, the Capitals are trying to maintain pace to win the Metro division (although the Flyers may have something to say about that).
Due to the surging Maple Leafs (more on them later) and the aforementioned Capitals, the Vegas Golden Knights suffered a surprise drop of two spots; even after they just had their 8 game win streak snapped last night. The quality of opponent is not yet factored into the model, so their loss to the Kings wouldn’t have done this. It is highly likely that they suffered the small set back because the other teams around them having better weeks statistically. Of course, they now look to have defined themselves as the premier team in the Pacific and *should* have no problem fending off the other teams.
Speaking of which, in a rare turn of events the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames appear to actually have ended up tying each other in TWCScore this week. This is extremely rare, and due to rounding the Oilers actually did end up having the better week. Of course, it’s still very interesting to see two teams fighting for position, and provincial rivals, come out on the exact same end this week.
Finally, the one team that needs a highlight is the Pittsburgh Penguins. Losing three straight this week, they only fell one single spot. They have the history in order to support a bit of a drop, but they went into California this week and got swept by the Sharks, Kings, and Ducks. A few years ago that statement would have been a normal occurrence, but this year not so much. After so many quality deadline adds, it’s clear the team hit a bit of a funk. A situation to monitor moving forward, as in in the tight playoff race they only sit five points ahead of falling out.
Biggest Gainer & Loser
Toronto Maple Leafs (+11)
What a week for the Leafs. After being criticized for a handful of items last week, the team rattled off three straight wins to jump up 11 spots. Their number are actually solid this season: 7th in CF%, 6th in SCF%, & 13th in HDCF%. Their 26th ranked SV% is the only thing bringing them down at this point, but last week was a great indication that if they can get consistent goaltending, they are a dangerous team. The third spot in the Atlantic appears to be theirs to lose right now and last week was a huge step in the right direction.
Buffalo Sabres (-8)
Oh boy. Poor Buffalo. The Sabres suffered three straight losses last week and now are just waiting to be declared out of the playoffs. It’s been another rough season, especially after such high expectations and a strong start. Their 3-0-0 week have them dropping to the 30th position.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: