TWC Power Rankings: Week 18

Welcome to Week 18 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis.  The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Rank	Change	Team		Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	–		Tampa Bay Lightning	2-0-2	41-11-4	872.6
2	+1		San Jose Sharks	3-0-0	33-16-7	814.5
3	-1		Calgary Flames	0-1-1	34-15-6	812.4
4	–		Toronto Maple Leafs	3-1-0	34-18-3	811.7
5	+1		New York Islanders	3-1-0	33-16-6	799.3
6	+2		Boston Bruins	3-0-1	31-17-8	785.1
7	+3		Montreal Canadiens	2-0-1	31-18-7	779.7
8	-3		Winnipeg Jets	1-2-1	35-18-3	777.6
9	-2		Vegas Golden Knights	2-1-0	31-22-4	776.1
10	+1		Nashville Predators	2-1-1	33-20-5	773.8
11	+4		Columbus Blue Jackets	3-0-0	31-20-3	766.8
12	–		Carolina Hurricanes	3-1-0	28-22-6	762.5
13	-4		Pittsburgh Penguins	0-2-1	28-20-7	749.7
14	+3		Washington Capitals	2-0-1	30-18-7	746.0
15	+1		St Louis Blues	4-0-0	27-22-5	745.0
16	-3		Minnesota Wild	1-2-1	27-24-5	734.1
17	-3		Dallas Stars	1-1-1	28-22-5	731.2
18	+1		Buffalo Sabres	2-1-1	27-21-7	724.3
19	-1		Philadelphia Flyers	2-0-1	25-23-7	717.2
20	–		Colorado Avalanche	0-1-3	22-22-11	702.2
21	+1		Florida Panthers	2-2-0	23-23-8	689.1
22	+4		New York Rangers	2-1-1	24-23-8	682.4
23	+1		Vancouver Canucks	1-2-1	25-24-7	676.6
24	-3		Arizona Coyotes	1-3-0	24-26-5	672.5
25	–		Edmonton Oilers	1-2-0	24-26-5	671.3
26	-3		New Jersey Devils	1-2-1	21-26-8	669.2
27	+1		Chicago Blackhawks	3-0-0	23-24-9	667.6
28	+1		Los Angeles Kings	3-0-1	23-27-5	658.3
29	+1		Ottawa Senators	2-1-0	21-29-5	641.2
30	-3		Detroit Red Wings	0-3-0	21-28-7	629.7
31	–		Anaheim Ducks	0-4-0	21-26-9	614.9

Power Ranking Notables

Tampa Bay is still Tampa Bay and most likely will remain at the top for the rest of the season. We do however have a change in the runner up position, as the San Jose Sharks over take the Calgary Flames for second on our list. The Sharks are on a five game winning streak, with one of those coming over the Flames themselves. They still remain a single point back, albeit with more games played, but they have a realistic shot at overtaking the Flames in the coming week.

The Flames on the other hand are 1-2-1 since returning from their extended break, cooling off slightly since their hot January. Their lead atop the Pacific division and Western conference has diminished, but it seems to be more of a PDO drop more than anything. Rounding out the top five are the New York Islanders who continue to expand their lead atop the Metropolitan division. The Isles lead the league in SV% with 92.4%, but surprisingly only place top 10 in one other statistical category: HDCF%.

The Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens continue to make their way up our rankings. Both teams are making the Atlantic division playoff picture much more interesting. It’s still surprising to see the Canadiens holding on this late in the season, but they are actually a top ten team in CF%, SCF%, and SV%. After Saturday’s night game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a match-up against the Canadiens could be much tougher than initially predicted.

The Winnipeg Jets luckily broke out of a three game losing streak on Sunday against the Buffalo Sabres, but still fell three spots. The Vegas Golden Knights, despite a 2-1-0 week, also fell a couple spots and look to be nestling themselves in the Pacific’s third position.

In the middle of the pack we have some movement between teams that are fighting for playoff spots. The Washington Capitals jumped up three spots, while the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars fell a handful. What is interesting to note that from spots 15-31, 10 of those teams are from the Western conference. Clearly it’s more of a limp towards the finish for most teams, but looking at the standings even the lowly Anaheim Ducks have a shot at the playoffs.

Biggest Gainer and Loser

Gainer: Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers (+4)

The Columbus Blue Jackets were the biggest losers last week, but now how sweet is redemption? Winners of three straight, the Blue Jackets have moved back into third place in the Metropolitan division. The team still has some major decisions coming up, but for the time being they have some mojo back. The New York Rangers on the other hand are trending in the right direction. 6-3-1 in their past ten, the Rangers now are only seven points out of a playoff spot. So you’re saying there is a chance?

Loser: Pittsburgh Penguins (-4)

Just as it was earlier in the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins are in a bit of trouble. 3-6-1 in their past 10 games, and now sitting in the final wild card spot only by a single point, the Penguins are no longer a lock for the post-season. Even after making two big trades this season, you would have to think more change is on the way. Based on their advanced stats, the Penguins rank in the upper half of all categories measured. They don’t seem to be the same as past seasons, but that doesn’t mean they are going to roll over any time soon.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.