Welcome to Week 11 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
It is officially the Christmas break for the entire NHL, which means your team is stuck in place for at least another four days. Just because it is their break doesn’t mean the TWC Power Rankings stop! Check out Week 11 right here:
|1||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||28-7-2||883.4|
|2||+3||Toronto Maple Leafs||4-0-0||25-10-2||831.6|
|6||–||San Jose Sharks||1-1-2||19-12-7||772.0|
|7||+7||Columbus Blue Jackets||4-0-0||21-12-3||767.4|
|11||-1||Vegas Golden Knights||1-1-2||20-15-4||756.5|
|17||+1||New York Islanders||3-1-0||18-13-4||729.8|
|22||+1||New York Rangers||1-1-1||15-14-6||680.6|
|24||-3||New Jersey Devils||1-3-0||12-16-7||668.9|
|26||+3||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||14-16-4||663.4|
|29||-1||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-1||15-17-6||640.9|
|30||–||Los Angeles Kings||3-0-0||14-20-3||635.3|
Power Ranking Notables
We hate to keep repeating ourselves, but the Tampa Bay Lightning remain in a class of their own. Will be extremely hard to knock them off their pedestal, especially after another consecutive week with a perfect record.
The top five teams were not altered in terms of composition, but they were in terms of order. The Toronto Maple Leafs moved up from the fifth position to second, after going a strong 4-0-0. A former number one team, the Leafs looked to be cushioning themselves as the second best team in the NHL before dropping off a bit. They look to be making a case to that end once more. What would be the biggest difference in helping them achieve this? Perhaps having William Nylander return to his normal NHL production.
The Jets, Flames, and Predators all dropped a single spot this week, due to Toronto’s jump up into second. While the Jets posted a respectable 2-1-0 record, the Flames and Predators should count themselves lucky they aren’t falling further after not registering a single victory last week. Going a combined 0-5-2, it is surprising that both teams didn’t take a massive tumble, as we have seen in the past. Luckily due to their strong underlying numbers, and a strong winning percentage, it is much easier for higher quality teams to remain high on our rankings.
The Bruins and Penguins both made moves in the right direction last week. The Bruins went 3-1-0, and got Patrice Bergeron back from injury, to move up five spots to tenth in our ranking. They sit in the WC1 spot during the Christmas break, but have some work to make up in the Atlantic Division to get inside the top three in their division. The Penguins also used a 3-1-0 week to move up three spots in our rankings, and into third place in the Metropolitan division. Having previously been in last place in the Eastern Conference only a few weeks ago, the Penguins have made a substantial jump up the standings and our rankings.
Unfortunately this means that some teams had to take a step in the wrong direction before Christmas. The Hurricanes continue to fall down our list, after a 1-2-0 week, but have gained a special spot in our hearts after wearing those Whalers throwback sweaters. Their team SV% has fallen to 24th in the league, and their record continues to push them further down the standings. Strong CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% numbers can’t help keep this team high in our rankings at the moment.
The Wild also continue to plummet in the wrong direction. After what was such a promising start, the Wild used a winless 0-2-1 week to fall four more spots. Spending the early part of the season in the top five, the Wild are now barely hanging on to a spot in the top half of the league.
The Flyers are also trending in the right direction, even after firing their GM and then their head coach. Thanks to Carter Hart‘s arrival on the NHL scene, the Flyers used a 3-1-0 week to move up three positions.
As we move further down our list, we see a troubling sight at the bottom of our rankings. Even after a very strong and successful combined 6-1-0 last week, the Kings and Blackhawks still sit in 30th and 31st respectively. Both teams still have glaring issues that a few win streaks clearly aren’t able to cure.
Biggest Gainer and Loser
Gainer: Columbus Blue Jackets (+7)
The Blue Jackets used a perfect 4-0-0 week to catapult seven spots up our rankings. With two wins against the Devils, and two shutout wins over that span, the Blue Jackets have jumped up to second place in the Metropolitan division. Sitting only two points behind the Capitals for first place, the Blue Jackets will need to find some consistency which has been lacking during the first half of this season.
Loser: Colorado Avalanche (-6)
The Avalanche find themselves back in the biggest loser position after finding themselves in the same spot during Week 9. Back then it was simply a matter of other teams having better weeks, but this time around it was due to a poor performance. Going 1-3-0 last week, and 3-6-1 in their last ten, the Avs would be the first to tell you that they need to be playing better. Not a whole lot of love lost though, as they still find themselves third in the Central division with some space to work with.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
TWC Power Rankings:
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.