TWC Power Rankings: Week 10

Welcome to Week 10 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis.  The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.


We’ve officially hit double digits in terms of TWC Power Ranking editions. The holidays are fast approaching, and soon it will be 2019. Which teams are well-positioned heading into this merry season? Check out Week 10 right now:

Rank Change Team Last Week Record TWCScore
1 Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning 2-0-1 25-7-2 872.6
2 +4 Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets 4-0-0 22-9-2 815.4
3 Calgary Flames Calgary Flames 3-0-0 22-10-2 814.7
4 Nashville Predators Nashville Predators 3-0-0 22-10-1 811.2
5 -3 Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs 1-1-1 21-10-2 806.4
6 +4 San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks 3-0-0 18-11-5 776.6
7 +5 Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres 3-0-1 20-9-5 773.7
8 Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche 1-1-1 18-9-6 768.8
9 +8 Washington Capitals Washington Capitals 3-0-0 20-9-3 765.9
10 -3 Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights 2-0-1 19-14-2 762.4
11 -2 Montreal Canadiens Montreal Canadiens 2-1-0 17-11-5 760.2
12 -1 Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild 2-1-0 17-13-2 753.1
13 -8 Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes 1-2-1 14-13-5 747.8
14 Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets 1-1-1 17-12-3 742.9
15 -2 Boston Bruins Boston Bruins 1-2-0 17-12-4 738.9
16 Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1-0 15-11-6 738.1
17 -2 Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers 2-1-1 18-13-3 728.2
18 +1 New York Islanders New York Islanders 1-1-1 15-12-4 719.3
19 -1 Dallas Stars Dallas Stars 0-3-0 16-14-3 700.5
20 +5 Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks 2-0-0 18-11-5 699.8
21 +1 New Jersy Devils New Jersey Devils 1-1-1 11-13-7 684.3
22 -2 Florida Panthers Florida Panthers 1-2-0 12-13-6 682.2
23 New York Rangers New York Rangers 0-1-2 14-13-5 682.0
24 -3 Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers 0-2-1 12-15-4 672.1
25 -1 Arizona Coyotes Arizona Coyotes 1-3-0 14-16-2 661.2
26 +3 Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks 3-0-1 16-16-4 655.4
27 Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators 1-2-0 14-16-4 650.0
28 -2 Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings 1-2-1 14-15-5 648.7
29 -1 St. Louis Blues St Louis Blues 2-1-0 12-15-4 647.3
30 Los Angeles Kings Los Angeles Kings 0-2-2 11-20-3 605.4
31 Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks 1-2-1 10-19-6 594.9

Power Ranking Notables

No change at the top once again this week. The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to set the pace in the NHL as well as our rankings. They stand in first place in the league, separated by six points over their closest competitors (who happen to be the number two and number three ranked teams on our list). Going 2-0-1 last week didn’t hurt their cause, and their sole overtime loss came off of one of the most exciting games so far this season against the Winnipeg Jets.

Speaking of the Jets, they jumped up four spots this week to enter the top three. After Mark Scheifele scored his second overtime goal in as many games, the Jets find themselves tied atop the Western Conference standings with the Calgary Flames. With Patrik Laine back to his scoring ways and Connor Hellebuyck continuing to return to Vezina form, the Jets are firing on all cylinders.

The Flames retain their third place ranking this week, even after going a perfect 3-0-0. This is the only team in the NHL with five players who have 30 or more points on the season, with Johnny Gaudreau leading the way with 46; good enough for sixth in the NHL. In addition to Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, and Mark Giordano are all playing at a point per game pace. The five of them actually all have at least 35 points each to their names, making the feat that much more impressive. They also have made huge strides in the SV% category, due in large part to David Rittich‘s outstanding performances. The Flames are undoubtedly setting the pace in the Pacific at the moment, but a few teams follow not too far behind.

The Nashville Predators and Toronto Maple Leafs round out the top five this week. Having opposite weeks, the Predators went a perfect 3-0-0 while the Maple Leafs only went 1-1-1. The Leafs took a bit of a drop from their second place ranking, but this is due in large part to the fact that the top four teams didn’t account for a single regulation loss last week. Tough to stay on top when the bar is set that high.

Moving down the rankings we see the Sharks and Buffalo Sabres at sixth and seventh respectively. Going a combined 6-0-1, both teams are riding phenomenal hot streaks. Jack Eichel continues to look more and more like the talent he was predicted to be, while San Jose is staring to mesh much more fluidly together. The wins contributed to their jumps this week, but the Sharks are also using top ten CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% to build their case, while Buffalo has consistently had strong SV% to help theirs. Both teams fully deserve to stay higher on our list moving forward.

Minor moves across the board throughout the rest of the rankings, with a few exceptions. One being the Anaheim Ducks, who continue to defy the odds and keep pace in the Pacific. It’s remarkable they have been able to get the amount of offence they have been getting out of Pontus Aberg and Daniel Sprong, all the while also getting Vezina-worthy goaltending out of John Gibson. They are still ranked last, or second to last, in the majority of statistical categories, which is why they aren’t ranked higher, but their first place SV% at 5v5 is helping their case a ton. If they continue to win, does it matter how they are able to get those points?

The bottom of our rankings saw very limited movement, with the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks continuing to occupy the bottom two spots. Not many positives coming from either team, especially after the recent Corey Crawford concussion news. It’s almost 2019, so probably a good time to start planning out their summers now.

Biggest Gainer and Loser

Gainer: Washington Capitals (+8)

A perfect 3-0-0 week, in addition to back-to-back Alexander Ovechkin hat-tricks, has catapulted the Washington Capitals into first place in the Metropolitan division. The year started off mixed for the defending champs, but all appears to be well in the capital at the moment. Currently on a five game winning streak, the Capitals have finally started to separate themselves from the rest of their division. Oh and speaking of Ovechkin, he currently has the most goals through 32 games in his career. So much for a Stanley Cup hangover.

Loser: Carolina Hurricanes (-8)

The talk of the town the last few weeks, the Hurricanes took a big step back this week. Although we love to keep discussing their ranking each week, a 1-2-1 performance was enough to drop them eight spots on our board. Although they still rank first across CF%, SCF%, and HDCF%, their inability to put the puck in the net has started to haunt them. If it wasn’t for yesterday’s shutout win over Arizona, the Canes could have found themselves falling even further.


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

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