Welcome to Week 3 of the TWC Power Rankings! Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray. Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
It may be three weeks into the 2018-19 season, but there still is a ton of movement across our power ranking board. Hot teams seem to have cooled down, while other slow starters have began to turn up the heat. There is a new number one this week, in addition to some significant drops. Which way did your team go?
|1||+1||Tampa Bay Lightning||7-2-1||725.2|
|2||+5||New Jersey Devils||5-2-1||719.0|
|3||+2||Toronto Maple Leafs||8-3-0||700.4|
|5||+5||San Jose Sharks||6-3-2||698.0|
|12||+4||Columbus Blue Jackets||6-4-0||655.4|
|14||+5||Vegas Golden Knights||5-5-1||648.0|
|22||+4||St Louis Blues||3-4-3||561.3|
|23||+2||New York Islanders||5-4-1||559.0|
|27||+3||Los Angeles Kings||3-7-1||531.2|
|30||-2||New York Rangers||3-7-1||521.6|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||2-7-2||479.6|
Power Ranking Notables
For the third week in a row, we have a new number one team. This week, the Tampa Bay Lightning take the top spot. It looked as if Nashville was going to be a tough team to displace, but the Lightning were able to get it done. Not having much of jump from second to first, Tampa used a 2-1-0 week, in addition to strong advanced statistics, to make the small jump to the top. Being a top ten team in CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% makes it much easier to absorb a single loss.
The New Jersey Devils are hot on their heels, only being behind by 6.2 points using our metric. The Devils took a big drop after being our inaugural number one, but have appeared to level out into a strong team. Yes they are fortunate to have only played eight games and have a beneficial winning percentage, but this team is much more than that. First in HDCF% in all situation, in addition to being in the top ten in both CF% and SV%, the Devils should be sticking around in our top five, should they continue to play the same way.
Rounding out the top five this week we have the Toronto Maple Leafs, Nashville Predators, and San Jose Sharks. Toronto jumps back in after going 2-0-0 this week, while the Predators take a bigger step back after a so-so 1-2-0 performance. The Sharks have made a huge jump over the three weeks, starting at seventeenth and now placing fifth on our rankings. A big factor in this? A 2-0-1 record, third overall in CF%, and fourth overall in HDCF%. This is the team we expected at the start of the season.
Other notable teams that made some moves this week, would be the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks. Both Pacific Division teams that are heading in completely opposite directions. The Oilers have gone 6-1-1 since starting the season 0-2-1, and have used a strong winning percentage to jump up our rankings. What is shocking is that the Oilers are only in the top ten in one statistical category used in our model, which is SV%. This is a team to watch, as a few losses could send them back down the list. We also don’t want to keep bringing up the Ducks week after week, but an 0-2-1 week appears to finally have burst the bubble in our rankings. They tumbled down eleven spots into 29th place. The numbers never lie.
Not much movement at the bottom of the rankings, as the Detroit Red Wings still hold the mantle of worst team. Not only in our model, but in the NHL as well. Would take a solid string of wins for this team to jump out of the basement.
Biggest Gainer and Loser
Gainer: Arizona Coyotes (+10)
The Coyotes used a perfect 3-0-0 week to make a major move up the TWC Power Rankings. Tied for the best goal differential in the Pacific Division, the Coyotes appear to be a greatly improved team. Arizona currently sits 5th in CF%, 6th in SCF%, and 3rd in SV% in all situations. A few more wins, and the ‘Yotes could be howlin’ their way up our board.
Loser: Calgary Flames (-13)
Just when the C of Red started to enjoy that top ten ranking, the team decided to implode on the ice. Coming off embarrassing losses against Montreal and Pittsburgh, and a shootout loss to Washington, the Flames were only able to go 0-2-1 this past week. They also have fallen into the lower third of the league in terms of SCF%, HDCF%, and SV%. If it weren’t for the teams strong CF% rating, they could have fallen even further.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.